Probability Moon (The Probability Trilogy Book 1)

Probability Moon (The Probability Trilogy Book 1)

by Nancy Kress

4.1 (192)

4.1 stars from 192 reviews

334 pages~5.6 hr readPublished by TORPublished 2000-01-01

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Last checked: Jul 17, 2026

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Fans of these authors will like this...

  • C.J. Cherryh
  • Lois McMaster Bujold
  • Ann Leckie

Fans of these books will like this...

  • The Expanse series
  • Ancillary Justice

Perfect for you if...

  • You enjoy space opera that treats alien contact as genuinely strange rather than just window dressing for human drama.
  • You're drawn to stories where the stakes are survival and the solutions require understanding something truly alien about how other minds work.
  • You appreciate books that layer a mystery (what's that artifact doing on the moon?) beneath character-driven storytelling rather than pure spectacle.

Maybe not for you if...

  • You want faster pacing and simpler plotting: this is a thoughtful, ideas-heavy opener that builds slowly toward its payoffs.
  • You prefer standalone novels: this is book one of a trilogy and it ends with threads deliberately left open.
  • You're looking for action-heavy military sci-fi: the conflict here is psychological and conceptual, not battles and explosions.

About this book

Probability Moon is the first book in a space opera trilogy by Hugo and Nebula Award–winning author Nancy Kress. Humanity has expanded into interstellar space using star gates—ancient technological remnants left by a long-vanished race. However, this expansion has come at a cost. Among the stars, humanity encountered the Fallers, an alien race committed to genocide. The resulting war is going badly for humanity. When a new planet is discovered inhabited by a pre-industrial civilization that experiences "shared reality"—a state in which inhabitants are compelled to share the same worldview—a team of human scientists is sent for first contact. Unknown to the team, their mission is actually a covert military operation. One of the planet's moons is revealed to be a massive artifact of the same origin as the star gates, and it may hold the key to humanity's survival in the war.

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Price History

Kindle price over time. Green zones = periods when the book was free.

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Free$7.50$14.99Jul '20Nov '25Jun '26Jul '26
$1.99$14.99

Price has dropped 7 times over the last 6 years. Goes on sale roughly every 172 days. Typically stays discounted for 18 days.

Sales Rank

Amazon sales rank: lower number = better selling book. #1 is the bestseller.

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#2,591#546,289#1,089,986May '18Sep '23Oct '24Jun '26

Currently around #31K in the Kindle store — a steady mid-list seller.

Rating & Reviews

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3.5★4.3★5.0★Jun '23Feb '24Oct '24Mar '26RatingReviews

Currently 4.1★ from 192 reviews

Gaining approximately 2 new reviews per month. Rating has remained stable at 4.1 over the tracking period.

Sale Prediction

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Free$7.50$14.99Jul '20Nov '25Jun '26Jul '26PredictedJul '26

Actual Predicted

This book goes on sale roughly every 172 days. Next drop estimated in about 25 weeks. Typical discount: 87% off.

Prices shown in USD from Amazon US. We continuously pull new data to improve tracking. If dates look old, it usually means there has been no significant change since the last data point.

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Nancy Kress

1 book on Vagrant Press

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